Estimation of Probable Occurrence of Earthquake in Chandigarh Region, India

Abha Mittal, R. Dharmaraju, Gayatri Deviel
Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee, India
Keywords: Earthquake Occurrence, Seismic Risk, Mean Return Period, Seismic Hazard
ABSTRACT: The earthquake damages can be minimized by the proper evaluation of seismic hazard based on
past history of earthquakes in the region. The cause of damage lies most often with the strong shaking caused by
the waves set up by the earthquakes. The records of strong ground motions from past earthquakes can serve to
provide a wealth of information that will be indispensable in the design of earthquake resistant structures.
Chandigarh and many parts of Haryana lie in highly earthquake prone region (Zone IV, IS 1893 - 2002) near the
Himalayan seismic belt. The Chandigarh is experiencing a great thrust of developmental activity in and around.
Chandigarh and its surrounding regions have experienced number of earthquakes of magnitude 6 and above since
historical times. In the present paper, probabilistic analysis has been presented to evaluate the mean return
period, probability of occurrence of earthquake for Chandigarh and its adjoining area using Gumbel’s approach
based on the extreme value analysis.
1 Introduction
Chandigarh, presently the union territory and capital city of Punjab and Haryana, located at about 250 kms North
of Delhi at the foot hills of Siwaliks, is a great centre of attraction in the recent times. The union territory of
Chandigarh comprises of Chandigarh city, Notified Area committee Manimajra and 22 villages (Figure 1).



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